← Matchups

TCU

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.5 · #46
Our numberARIZ -11.1 no book has priced this game

Arizona

B12 · 1-1 (0-1 B12) · power +22.9 · #22
Our side
MoneylineARIZ to win ours 67%
Projected score 20–31 TCU – ARIZ
2026-11-06 · 10:15 PM Casino Del Sol Stadium · Tucson, AZ B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series TCU lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 1999
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 41 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense Arizona Wildcats #112 run defense
Pass game even 42 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense Arizona Wildcats #78 pass defense
Run game even 43 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #65 rush offense TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game edge Arizona Wildcats 54 ranks
Arizona Wildcats #106 pass offense TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
TCU Horned Frogs Balanced · 49% run Avg pace Arizona Wildcats Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Sonny Dykes · 79-46 Brent Brennan · 47-60

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
TCU Horned Frogs
TE Kari Ashley 10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD #6 TE
DB Teon Parks 1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #65 DB
DL Ansel Din-Mbuh 6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #98 DL
RB Jeremy Payne 221 rush yds · 6 rec #81 RB
Arizona Wildcats
QB Noah Fifita 492 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #42 QB
WR Giovanni Richardson 13 rec · 144 yds #162 WR
LB Chase Kennedy 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #182 LB
RB Kedrick Reescano 97 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #152 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
TCU Horned FrogsB12 +17.5 +9.7 +7.9 #46
Arizona WildcatsB12 +22.9 +7.1 +15.8 #22

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
TCU offense vs Arizona defense-6.1 pts
Arizona offense vs TCU defense-0.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 792 mi
Altitude · context only556 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.