Our side
MoneylineCIN to win
ours 49%
Projected score
23–27
CIN – HOU
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD
TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Houston and Cincinnati split 30 (15–15)
· 30 meetings since 1957
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Cincinnati Bearcats
59 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense
Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game
edge Cincinnati Bearcats
63 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense
Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Run game
edge Cincinnati Bearcats
59 ranks
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Cougars
71 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Cincinnati Bearcats
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Houston Cougars
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB
Gi'Bran Payne
210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#70 RB
DL
Josh Hough
7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#206 DL
WR
JV Gibson
9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD
#129 WR
LB
Jonathan Thompson
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#144 LB
Houston Cougars
WR
Amare Thomas
11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#73 WR
TE
Patrick Overmyer
8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD
#30 TE
DB
Jordan Allen
5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#162 DB
DB
Jalen Mayo
9 tkl · 2 PD
#271 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Cincinnati offense vs Houston defense+4.8 pts
Houston offense vs Cincinnati defense+2.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 895 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.