Our side
MoneylineISU to win
ours 84%
Projected score
15–34
OKST – ISU
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD
Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Oklahoma State lead
34–22–3
· 59 meetings since 1926
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Iowa State Cyclones
208 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #257 rush offense
Iowa State Cyclones #49 run defense
Pass game
edge Iowa State Cyclones
125 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass offense
Iowa State Cyclones #119 pass defense
Run game
edge Iowa State Cyclones
145 ranks
Iowa State Cyclones #76 rush offense
Oklahoma State Cowboys #221 run defense
Pass game
edge Iowa State Cyclones
157 ranks
Iowa State Cyclones #87 pass offense
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass defense
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Iowa State Cyclones
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Mike Gundy · 86-46
Matt Campbell · 81-57
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Oklahoma State Cowboys
WR
Wyatt Young
13 rec · 205 yds · 1 TD
#44 WR
RB
Caleb Hawkins
189 rush yds · 1 TD · 8 rec
#56 RB
LB
Ethan Wesloski
16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#101 LB
QB
Drew Mestemaker
558 pass yds · 3 TD · 4 INT
#38 QB
Iowa State Cyclones
DL
Isaac Terrell
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#116 DL
LB
Sullivan Schlimgen
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#87 LB
TE
Vince Benetti
3 rec · 34 yds · 2 TD
#42 TE
QB
Jaylen Raynor
301 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#82 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Oklahoma State offense vs Iowa State defense-12.9 pts
Iowa State offense vs Oklahoma State defense+1.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 446 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.