Our side
MoneylineTTU to win
ours 30%
Projected score
33–21
TTU – CIN
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Texas Tech lead
1–0–1
· 2 meetings since 1968
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
138 ranks
Texas Tech Red Raiders #47 rush offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
94 ranks
Texas Tech Red Raiders #58 pass offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Run game
even
26 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #1 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #2 pass defense
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Cincinnati Bearcats
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Joey McGuire · 35-18
Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Tech Red Raiders
RB
J'Koby Williams
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 10 rec
#20 RB
LB
Ben Roberts
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#97 LB
DL
A.J. Holmes Jr.
6 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#187 DL
K
Stone Harrington
4 FG · 8 XP · 20 pts
#28 K
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB
Gi'Bran Payne
210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#70 RB
DL
Josh Hough
7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#206 DL
WR
JV Gibson
9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD
#129 WR
LB
Jonathan Thompson
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#144 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Texas Tech offense vs Cincinnati defense+6.4 pts
Cincinnati offense vs Texas Tech defense-4.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,037 mi
Altitude · context only742 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.