← Matchups

Iowa State

B12 · 1-1 · power +21.9 · #27
Our numberARIZ -7.3 no book has priced this game

Arizona

B12 · 1-1 (0-1 B12) · power +22.9 · #22
Our side
MoneylineARIZ to win ours 57%
Projected score 21–28 ISU – ARIZ
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Casino Del Sol Stadium · Tucson, AZ B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arizona lead 4–2–1 · 7 meetings since 1948
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 36 ranks apart
Iowa State Cyclones #76 rush offense Arizona Wildcats #112 run defense
Pass game even 9 ranks apart
Iowa State Cyclones #87 pass offense Arizona Wildcats #78 pass defense
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #65 rush offense Iowa State Cyclones #49 run defense
Pass game even 13 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #106 pass offense Iowa State Cyclones #119 pass defense
Iowa State Cyclones Run-heavy · 58% run Avg pace Arizona Wildcats Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Matt Campbell · 81-57 Brent Brennan · 47-60

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Iowa State Cyclones
DL Isaac Terrell 5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #116 DL
LB Sullivan Schlimgen 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #87 LB
TE Vince Benetti 3 rec · 34 yds · 2 TD #42 TE
QB Jaylen Raynor 301 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT #82 QB
Arizona Wildcats
QB Noah Fifita 492 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #42 QB
WR Giovanni Richardson 13 rec · 144 yds #162 WR
LB Chase Kennedy 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #182 LB
RB Kedrick Reescano 97 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #152 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Iowa State CyclonesB12 +21.9 +7.5 +14.4 #27
Arizona WildcatsB12 +22.9 +7.1 +15.8 #22

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Iowa State offense vs Arizona defense-8.3 pts
Arizona offense vs Iowa State defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,166 mi
Altitude · context only471 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.