Our side
MoneylineARIZ to win
ours 57%
Projected score
21–28
ISU – ARIZ
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD
Casino Del Sol Stadium · Tucson, AZ
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arizona lead
4–2–1
· 7 meetings since 1948
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
Iowa State Cyclones #76 rush offense
Arizona Wildcats #112 run defense
Pass game
even
9 ranks apart
Iowa State Cyclones #87 pass offense
Arizona Wildcats #78 pass defense
Run game
even
16 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #65 rush offense
Iowa State Cyclones #49 run defense
Pass game
even
13 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #106 pass offense
Iowa State Cyclones #119 pass defense
Iowa State Cyclones
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Arizona Wildcats
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Matt Campbell · 81-57
Brent Brennan · 47-60
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Iowa State Cyclones
DL
Isaac Terrell
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#116 DL
LB
Sullivan Schlimgen
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#87 LB
TE
Vince Benetti
3 rec · 34 yds · 2 TD
#42 TE
QB
Jaylen Raynor
301 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#82 QB
Arizona Wildcats
QB
Noah Fifita
492 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
#42 QB
WR
Giovanni Richardson
13 rec · 144 yds
#162 WR
LB
Chase Kennedy
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#182 LB
RB
Kedrick Reescano
97 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#152 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Iowa State offense vs Arizona defense-8.3 pts
Arizona offense vs Iowa State defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,166 mi
Altitude · context only471 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.