← Matchups

Oklahoma State

B12 · 1-1 · power +7.3 · #99
Our numberHOU -12.6 no book has priced this game

Houston

B12 · 2-0 · power +13.9 · #61
Our side
MoneylineHOU to win ours 70%
Projected score 20–32 OKST – HOU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Houston lead 11–10–1 · 22 meetings since 1951
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Houston Cougars 171 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #257 rush offense Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Cougars 144 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass offense Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Run game even 23 ranks apart
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #221 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Cougars 163 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass defense
Oklahoma State Cowboys Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Houston Cougars Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
Mike Gundy · 86-46 Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Oklahoma State Cowboys
WR Wyatt Young 13 rec · 205 yds · 1 TD #44 WR
RB Caleb Hawkins 189 rush yds · 1 TD · 8 rec #56 RB
LB Ethan Wesloski 16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #101 LB
QB Drew Mestemaker 558 pass yds · 3 TD · 4 INT #38 QB
Houston Cougars
WR Amare Thomas 11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD #73 WR
TE Patrick Overmyer 8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD #30 TE
DB Jordan Allen 5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #162 DB
DB Jalen Mayo 9 tkl · 2 PD #271 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Oklahoma State CowboysB12 +7.3 +1.5 +5.9 #99
Houston CougarsB12 +13.9 +9.8 +4.1 #61

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Oklahoma State offense vs Houston defense-2.6 pts
Houston offense vs Oklahoma State defense+4.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 454 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.