Our side
MoneylineTTU to win
ours 82%
Projected score
19–37
ASU – TTU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Galaxy Stadium · Lubbock, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arizona State and Texas Tech split 6 (3–3)
· 6 meetings since 1999
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
95 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #1 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
132 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #2 pass defense
Run game
even
29 ranks apart
Texas Tech Red Raiders #47 rush offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game
even
24 ranks apart
Texas Tech Red Raiders #58 pass offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Arizona State Sun Devils
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded
Joey McGuire · 35-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR
Reed Harris
15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD
#4 WR
QB
Cutter Boley
641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#22 QB
WR
Omarion Miller
17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#86 WR
DB
Montana Warren
10 tkl
#343 DB
Texas Tech Red Raiders
RB
J'Koby Williams
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 10 rec
#20 RB
LB
Ben Roberts
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#97 LB
DL
A.J. Holmes Jr.
6 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#187 DL
K
Stone Harrington
4 FG · 8 XP · 20 pts
#28 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arizona State offense vs Texas Tech defense-2.7 pts
Texas Tech offense vs Arizona State defense+10.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 579 mi
Altitude · context only612 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.