BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Mississippi State

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.2 · #37
Our numberMISS -3.5 no book has priced this game

Ole Miss

SEC · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #18
Our side
MoneylineMISS to win ours 66%
Projected score 28–31 MSST – MISS
2026-11-27 · 12:00 PM Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS SEC game Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MSST spreadMISS spread OverUnder MSST winMISS win MSST TT overMSST TT under MISS TT overMISS TT under
DraftKings — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Ole Miss lead 67–47–5 · 119 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Mississippi State Bulldogs 96 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense Ole Miss Rebels #198 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 91 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense Ole Miss Rebels #58 pass defense
Run game edge Ole Miss Rebels 110 ranks
Ole Miss Rebels #53 rush offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 109 ranks
Ole Miss Rebels #23 pass offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Mississippi State Bulldogs Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Ole Miss Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Jeff Lebby · 7-18 Pete Golding · 2-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB Kamario Taylor 581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #5 QB
WR Anthony Evans III 14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD #20 WR
K Kyle Ferrie 3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts #19 K
RB Fluff Bothwell 165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #66 RB
Ole Miss Rebels
WR Deuce Alexander 13 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #24 WR
QB Trinidad Chambliss 561 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #13 QB
DB Jaylon Braxton 11 tkl · 3 PD #111 DB
RB Kewan Lacy 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 5 rec #50 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mississippi State BulldogsSEC +20.2 +15.3 +4.9 #37
Ole Miss RebelsSEC +24.9 +16.2 +8.7 #18

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mississippi State offense vs Ole Miss defense+6.6 pts
Ole Miss offense vs Mississippi State defense+11.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.