Our side
MoneylineLOU to win
ours 36%
Projected score
30–24
LOU – UK
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD
Kroger Field · Lexington, KY
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Kentucky and Louisville split 34 (17–17)
· 34 meetings since 1915
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Louisville Cardinals
89 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #25 rush offense
Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Louisville Cardinals #209 pass offense
Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Run game
edge Louisville Cardinals
96 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense
Louisville Cardinals #94 run defense
Pass game
edge Louisville Cardinals
163 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense
Louisville Cardinals #5 pass defense
Louisville Cardinals
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Kentucky Wildcats
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Jeff Brohm · 86-51 · defense-minded
Mark Stoops · 75-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Louisville Cardinals
QB
Lincoln Kienholz
639 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#1 QB
WR
Tre Richardson
11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD
#69 WR
TE
Jaleel Skinner
5 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#23 TE
WR
Lawayne McCoy
5 rec · 164 yds · 2 TD
#102 WR
Kentucky Wildcats
DL
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#5 DL
DB
Jordan Castell
16 tkl · 1 INT
#22 DB
DL
Tavion Gadson
5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#33 DL
TE
Willie Rodriguez
12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD
#16 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Louisville offense vs Kentucky defense+6.8 pts
Kentucky offense vs Louisville defense-0.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.