← Matchups

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Our numberTEX -19.4 no book has priced this game

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 91%
Projected score 18–37 ARK – TEX
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Texas lead 57–23 · 80 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game even 7 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Run game edge Texas Longhorns 106 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 133 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded Steve Sarkisian · 48-20

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arkansas offense vs Texas defense-10.0 pts
Texas offense vs Arkansas defense+9.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 449 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.