← Matchups

Vanderbilt

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.8 · #28
Our numberFLA -7.1 no book has priced this game

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our side
MoneylineFLA to win ours 50%
Projected score 23–30 VAN – FLA
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Gainesville, FL SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida lead 44–11–2 · 57 meetings since 1945
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 74 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 162 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Run game even 30 ranks apart
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game even 10 ranks apart
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Vanderbilt Commodores Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded Billy Napier · 62-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB Nick Rinaldi 13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #7 LB
DB CJ Heard 14 tkl · 1 PD #21 DB
DL Miles Capers 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #23 DL
DL Issa Ouattara 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #139 DL
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Vanderbilt CommodoresSEC +21.8 +11.2 +10.6 #28
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Vanderbilt offense vs Florida defense+0.9 pts
Florida offense vs Vanderbilt defense-0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 518 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.