← Matchups

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our numberTEX -7.4 no book has priced this game

Missouri

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.3 · #36
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 32%
Projected score 30–22 TEX – MIZ
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Texas lead 17–4 · 21 meetings since 1901
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 73 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Missouri Tigers #57 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri Tigers 93 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Missouri Tigers #11 pass defense
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 136 ranks
Missouri Tigers #217 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Missouri Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace
Steve Sarkisian · 48-20 Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB
Missouri Tigers
WR Donovan Olugbode 14 rec · 237 yds · 3 TD #28 WR
QB Austin Simmons 544 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #15 QB
WR Cayden Lee 10 rec · 200 yds · 2 TD #78 WR
RB Jamal Roberts 172 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #136 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7
Missouri TigersSEC +20.3 +8.6 +11.7 #36

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Texas offense vs Missouri defense+2.5 pts
Missouri offense vs Texas defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 672 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.