← Matchups

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Our numberAUB -12.7 no book has priced this game

Auburn

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.2 · #30
Our side
MoneylineAUB to win ours 78%
Projected score 19–32 ARK – AUB
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn, AL SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Auburn lead 21–13–1 · 35 meetings since 1984
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 8 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense Auburn Tigers #5 run defense
Pass game edge Arkansas Razorbacks 53 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense Auburn Tigers #127 pass defense
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 213 ranks
Auburn Tigers #23 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game even 44 ranks apart
Auburn Tigers #193 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg Auburn Tigers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded Hugh Freeze · 64-44

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB
Auburn Tigers
LB Elijah Melendez 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #4 LB
DB Andre Jordan Jr. 5 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #14 DB
DL Cody Sigler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #149 DL
DB Eric Winters 14 tkl #194 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80
Auburn TigersSEC +21.2 +5.8 +15.4 #30

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arkansas offense vs Auburn defense-9.6 pts
Auburn offense vs Arkansas defense+1.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 550 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.