← Matchups

Ole Miss

SEC · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #18
Our numberTEX -10.5 no book has priced this game

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 67%
Projected score 23–33 MISS – TEX
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX SEC game Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MISS spreadTEX spread OverUnder MISS winTEX win MISS TT overMISS TT under TEX TT overTEX TT under
DraftKings

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Texas lead 6–2 · 8 meetings since 1912
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Ole Miss Rebels #53 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 58 ranks
Ole Miss Rebels #23 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Run game edge Texas Longhorns 68 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Ole Miss Rebels #198 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 46 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Ole Miss Rebels #58 pass defense
Ole Miss Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Pete Golding · 2-1 Steve Sarkisian · 48-20

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ole Miss Rebels
WR Deuce Alexander 13 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #24 WR
QB Trinidad Chambliss 561 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #13 QB
DB Jaylon Braxton 11 tkl · 3 PD #111 DB
RB Kewan Lacy 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 5 rec #50 RB
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ole Miss RebelsSEC +24.9 +16.2 +8.7 #18
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ole Miss offense vs Texas defense+0.4 pts
Texas offense vs Ole Miss defense+5.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 555 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.