← Matchups

Tennessee

SEC · 2-0 · power +26.9 · #12
Our numberTENN -0.9 no book has priced this game

South Carolina

SEC · 2-0 · power +18.0 · #45
Our side
MoneylineTENN to win ours 33%
Projected score 28–27 TENN – SC
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Tennessee lead 29–11–2 · 42 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 18 ranks apart
Tennessee Volunteers #24 rush offense South Carolina Gamecocks #6 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Volunteers 85 ranks
Tennessee Volunteers #31 pass offense South Carolina Gamecocks #116 pass defense
Run game edge Tennessee Volunteers 49 ranks
South Carolina Gamecocks #140 rush offense Tennessee Volunteers #91 run defense
Pass game even 35 ranks apart
South Carolina Gamecocks #130 pass offense Tennessee Volunteers #95 pass defense
Tennessee Volunteers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace South Carolina Gamecocks Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Josh Heupel · 73-28 · offense-minded Shane Beamer · 33-30 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee Volunteers
DL Xavier Gilliam 8 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL #36 DL
DB Dejuan Lane 4 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #35 DB
RB DeSean Bishop 244 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #16 RB
QB Faizon Brandon 374 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT #16 QB
South Carolina Gamecocks
RB Matt Fuller 199 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #93 RB
DL Anthony Addison 3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #233 DL
WR Donovan Murph 4 rec · 92 yds · 2 TD #164 WR
DL Tomiwa Durojaiye 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #288 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tennessee VolunteersSEC +26.9 +22.0 +5.0 #12
South Carolina GamecocksSEC +18.0 +6.4 +11.7 #45

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tennessee offense vs South Carolina defense+10.3 pts
South Carolina offense vs Tennessee defense+1.4 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.