Our side
MoneylineVAN to win
ours 37%
Projected score
29–24
VAN – UK
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD
Kroger Field · Lexington, KY
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Kentucky lead
49–42–4
· 95 meetings since 1906
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
110 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense
Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
180 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense
Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Run game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
140 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game
even
26 ranks apart
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Vanderbilt Commodores
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg
Kentucky Wildcats
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded
Mark Stoops · 75-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB
Nick Rinaldi
13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#7 LB
DB
CJ Heard
14 tkl · 1 PD
#21 DB
DL
Miles Capers
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#23 DL
DL
Issa Ouattara
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#139 DL
Kentucky Wildcats
DL
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#5 DL
DB
Jordan Castell
16 tkl · 1 INT
#22 DB
DL
Tavion Gadson
5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#33 DL
TE
Willie Rodriguez
12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD
#16 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Vanderbilt offense vs Kentucky defense+1.7 pts
Kentucky offense vs Vanderbilt defense-5.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.