Our side
MoneylineVAN to win
ours 79%
Projected score
21–34
ARK – VAN
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas lead
7–3
· 10 meetings since 1949
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game
edge Arkansas Razorbacks
120 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Run game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
232 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
231 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Arkansas Razorbacks
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Vanderbilt Commodores
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded
Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB
Khmori House
8 tkl
#173 DB
WR
Chris Marshall
12 rec · 142 yds
#196 WR
DB
Christian Harrison
9 tkl · 1 INT
#325 DB
DB
Joker Johnson
10 tkl · 1 PD
#465 DB
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB
Nick Rinaldi
13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#7 LB
DB
CJ Heard
14 tkl · 1 PD
#21 DB
DL
Miles Capers
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#23 DL
DL
Issa Ouattara
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#139 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas offense vs Vanderbilt defense-4.8 pts
Vanderbilt offense vs Arkansas defense+6.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 411 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.