The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
No game on this slate has a book spread to compare against yet.
No game on this slate has a book total to compare against yet.
No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.
What the colors mean state · side · price · outcome
Read the ramp the way it is drawn: bright means we AGREE with the market. Every band above is under the 52.4% break-even and the rate falls as our disagreement grows, so a big gap is this model’s worst bucket rather than a buy signal. That is why the disagreement column is drawn in neutral ink instead of a hot-to-cold scale, why nothing here is sorted by it, and why the value color is attached to the price rather than to the size of our disagreement.
| Kickoff | Matchup | Score | Our number | The book | Disagreement ← awaybookhome → | Side we logged | Best line — and by how much | Total | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No priced games yet — books post lines through the week. | |||||||||
Every bar puts the book at the center and our number beside it, to one scale for every game. A wide gap is a caution, not a signal — measured over 10,740 graded games, the further we sit from the market the worse we have done (52.0% ATS where we barely disagree, 46.8% where we disagree by 14+ points). Naming a side is orientation, not a recommendation: this project measured no edge on spreads or totals over 10,777 games. The best-number column is a price, never a pick — whatever side you were going to take, it says who has the best number on it.
Every row links to its full breakdown. The books grid, the public splits and the bet slip live on Panels and on each game’s own page.